The Future Of Ageing Societies Will Be Nothing Like The Past
Webinar
Webinar Recording
The integration of China and the improvements in the workforce among the advanced economies produced a demographic ‘sweet spot’ that led to falling inflation and interest rates, steady growth and rising asset prices – an era that Mervyn King labelled the NICE (No Inflation Constant Expansion) years. The bad news was that debt and inequality within the advanced economies rose, but even there, global inequality fell as emerging economies benefited from globalisation.
That sweet spot is now turning sour. Saddled with even more debt because of the pandemic, and unable to lift growth at all and productivity by much, the advanced economies will have little choice but pursue inflation. If demography provides a ‘real’ explanation for why inflation will rise, the recent dramatic increase in monetary aggregates ensures that inflation will rise within a year of the vaccination of our populations. Central banks and markets will initially welcome higher inflation, but soon despair at their inability to control it.
Of one thing we are sure, the future of ageing societies will be nothing like the past.
Speakers:
Manoj Pradhan is the founder of Talking Heads Macroeconomics, an independent research advisory for global macroeconomics. He was most recently Managing Director at Morgan Stanley. Prior to that, he served on the faculty of the George Washington University and the State University of New York. While at Morgan Stanley, Manoj worked on quantitative macroeconomics, emerging markets and global economics. He has a Ph.D. in economics from George Washington University and a masters in finance from the London Business School.
Charles Goodhart's career has alternated between academia (Cambridge, 1963-65; LSE, 1967/68; again 1985-date), and work in the official sector, mostly in the Bank of England (Department of Economic Affairs, 1965/66; Bank of England, 1968-85; Monetary Policy Committee, 1997-2000). He has been a specialist monetary economist, focussing on policy issues and on financial regulation, and has written more books and articles on these subjects than any sane person would want to read.
Their new book 'The Great Demographic Reversal' can be found here.
Speaker(s):
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Charles Goodhart
Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance
London School of Economics
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Manoj Pradhan
Founder
Talking Heads Macroeconomics
Chairman:
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Professor Michael Mainelli
Executive Chairman
Z/Yen Group